CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T08:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T08:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33711/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the NE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-10-03T08:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is a filament eruption centered at approx. N25E70 with liftoff beginning at approx. 2024-10-03T07:30Z as seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304. Field line opening can be seen clearly in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. This filament erupted gradually, so there is a small amount of material seen preceding the main bulk of the CME from which the measurement was based. No signs of glancing blow from this CME were observed in the solar wind at L1. With the observed 2024-10-06T06:55Z significant shock arrival at L1 attributed to a much faster Earth-directed 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME, it might be possible that the flank of the 2024-10-03T08:24Z CME may have been swept by into the front of the faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T19:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 68.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-10-03T22:40Z
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